The first issues that are presented are the issues in the Middle East. In the Middle East the United States are beginning to remove troops from Iraq due to the Obama Doctrine.(Lexington) The Obama Doctrine has many different policies but his goals are clear. He intends to change the appearance of the United States on the world stage. He no longer wants America to be known as the aggressive powerseeker he wants to become a more conservative play on the world stage.(Lexington) He wishes to do this in order to decrease national debt and not to spread his army too thin. Many American were upset with his decision to do so.(Kagan) Frederick and Kimberley Kagan even referred to it as "An American Retreat" in the Weekly Standard. This has opened the door for a new aggressive powerseeker to be found. This role could very easily be filled by the Rising Eastern Powers.
Does this situation not sound very similar to that of what happened to the British Empire at the time of world war two? At the fall of the British Empire the British removed all troops from a majority of their colonies and granted them independence. They did this in order to prepare for the upcoming second world war. They needed to reduce the fees that were being paid in order to keep control of te colonies and in order not to spread themselves to thin with the impending war ahead.(Pierce) Before WW2 Britain was still a military superpower but were in need of some serious rebuilding finicially. As a result of this they decolonized many of their colonies in order to fight in WW2. After WW2 a new super power emerged*. The United States stepped into the role the British Empire left behind after their fall. At the time the United States was economically the strongest country in the world and was hungry for power on the world scale.
Now with this being said does it not sound very reasonable that with the new role the United States intends to take on now that a new super power could rise. The rising Eastern Powers appear to be very similar to the United States after the fall of the British Empire. I believe that with the United States looking to diminish their roles the Eastern Powers will step in and take over as the world's most influetial and powerful countries.
Another reason that I believe the United States will have a lesser role is due to their outrageous debt. This debt is so huge that there is a very high probability there will be a very large fallout. This fallout will be so huge it will ultimately result in the collapse of the United States power. The most prosperous and economically surging countries are that of the Eastern Powers (China, India, Japan). These countries are quickly climbing up on the world scale and will soon have the strongest economies on the planet.(Kapila) The other problem is that the United States owe a majority of their money to the Eastern powers. The situation is getting so severe that China is now asking for US land and successful bussinesses in order to pay off their debts.(Corsi) Now during the time of the British Empires collapse they were a mess finacially.(Jones) After WW2 the British Empire owed millions of dollars around the world but can you guess who they owed the money to? As a result of the Anglo American loan the Britsh owed the United States 650 million dollars in order to begin to recover after WW2. (Jones)They were in alot of debt just as the United States is now. The country that stepped in and took over that role was the United States a new economic powerhouse rising to the top. This sounds identical to the modern Eastern Powers.
The debt crisis in the United States will lessen their influence due to their fall and the economic surge of the Eastern Powers. They will take over as the economic powerhouse just the United States did during the fall of the British Empire giving them much more influence on the world.Also right now the United States is the strongest military country on a world scale. This has been an advantage and is one of the main reasons that they have had such a huge influence on the world. Although this is still true their are rising military powers in the East. With their economic resurgence the Eastern Powers can take a fast track to military modernization and expansion.(Kapila) The studies of the International Institute of Strategic Studies comes to the conclusion that in military capabilities and in defense economies the Eastern Powers have more potential then the United States.(Kapila)
With this being said at the time of their collapse the British Empire were still considered one of the strongest militaries. (Jones)After emerging victorious from the Second World War Britain was considered to have a dominant military. At the same time the United States was getting stronger day by day because at the time the US was prosperous and the British were in massive debt. The United States took that role from Britain as the most imposing military. Just as now a days the United States is still the strongest military with work and effort the Eastern Powers can one day step into the role. They will one day become stronger then the United States if they wish to be. This will take the United States biggest influence away and give it to the Eastern Powers just as they did to Britain.
Some people may argue that the United States will not go down easily. That if they begin to lose power they will fight to retain it. They will start a war in order to maintain dominance. I believe though that this cannot be true due to the nuclear consequences. Even if the United States is mad, no matter how power hungry they maybe they will not put the whole world at risk of nuclear destruction. A quote from former president Jimmy Carter states "When I was in the White House, I was confronted with the challenge of the Cold War. Both the Soviet Union and I had 30,000 nuclear weapons that could destroy the entire earth and I had to maintain the peace." This goes to show that even when threatened in the past the United States were smart enough not to do such a thing and I believe that they still are. In conclusion the United States will have less influence in the future due to the issues in the Middle East, debt crisis and the Rising of the Eastern Powers gaining more influence day by day. This has been proven by the events that occured during fall of the British Empire and are reoccuring now in the United States. The best predictor of the future is the past.
*The Soviet Union was also a contender for this role but ultimately failed due to the collapse of communism.
Works Cited
Corsi, Jerome. "China Poised to Play Debt Card." WND. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Jan.
2013. <http://www.wnd.com/2013/01/
china-poised-to-play-debt-card-for-u-s-land/>.
Ikenberry, John. "The Rise of China and the Future of the West." Foriegn
Affairs. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 Feb. 2008.
<http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/63042/g-john-ikenberry/
the-rise-of-china-and-the-future-of-the-west>.
Jones, Steve. "The U.S. and Great Britain: The Special Relationship After World
War II." US Foriegn Policy. About.com, n.d. Web. 18 Mar. 2012.
<http://usforeignpolicy.about.com/od/alliesenemies/a/
The-U-S-And-Great-Britain-The-Special-Relationship-After-WWII.htm>.
Kapila, Subhash. "The Global Power Shift to Asia: Geostrategic and Geopolitical
Implications." Aljazeera Centre for Studies. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Nov. 2012.
<http://studies.aljazeera.net/ResourceGallery/media/Documents/2012/4/17/
2012417114949218734The%20Global%20Power%20Shift%20to%20Asia.pdf>.
Lexington, George. "The Obama Doctrine." The Economist. Corporate Network, n.d.
Web. 1 Dec. 2012. <http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/
21567354-barack-obamas-foreign-policy-goal-his-second-term-avoid-costly-entanglem
ents>.
Pierce, David. "Decolonization and the Collapse of the British Empire."
Student Pulse. N.p., n.d. Web. 10 Nov. 2009.
<http://www.studentpulse.com/articles/5/
decolonization-and-the-collapse-of-the-british-empire>.
2013. <http://www.wnd.com/2013/01/
china-poised-to-play-debt-card-for-u-s-land/>.
Ikenberry, John. "The Rise of China and the Future of the West." Foriegn
Affairs. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 Feb. 2008.
<http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/63042/g-john-ikenberry/
the-rise-of-china-and-the-future-of-the-west>.
Jones, Steve. "The U.S. and Great Britain: The Special Relationship After World
War II." US Foriegn Policy. About.com, n.d. Web. 18 Mar. 2012.
<http://usforeignpolicy.about.com/od/alliesenemies/a/
The-U-S-And-Great-Britain-The-Special-Relationship-After-WWII.htm>.
Kapila, Subhash. "The Global Power Shift to Asia: Geostrategic and Geopolitical
Implications." Aljazeera Centre for Studies. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Nov. 2012.
<http://studies.aljazeera.net/ResourceGallery/media/Documents/2012/4/17/
2012417114949218734The%20Global%20Power%20Shift%20to%20Asia.pdf>.
Lexington, George. "The Obama Doctrine." The Economist. Corporate Network, n.d.
Web. 1 Dec. 2012. <http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/
21567354-barack-obamas-foreign-policy-goal-his-second-term-avoid-costly-entanglem
ents>.
Pierce, David. "Decolonization and the Collapse of the British Empire."
Student Pulse. N.p., n.d. Web. 10 Nov. 2009.
<http://www.studentpulse.com/articles/5/
decolonization-and-the-collapse-of-the-british-empire>.
To anyone reading this those blue underlined words will not go away and if i try to remove them they just move to different words in my blog.I don't know how they got there or why they won't go away. Sorry for the technical difficulties.
ReplyDeleteThere aren't any blue underlined words.
ReplyDeleteOh there is on my computer for some reason
ReplyDeleteI do disagree with what you are proving however, this was a very well written response in defense of what your thesis was. If you look back on history, and notice that even with the fall of great empires, the Western world has still prevailed in having the greatest influence on the world throughout time. One really good point you did bring up though was their debt. The debt that the United States owes is ridiculous! Like you showed as well, they owe a substantial amount of money to China which is a really big Eastern power who has the ability to overtake and provide great influence to the world. With the talk about the USA military, their military power will not be overtaken any time soon which is what we’re looking at for the assignment. I do agree however that the US military will be overcome by another power later in time, nonetheless, this is not the time in which they will fall. Therefore, in conclusion, the points you brought up in your essay strongly back up and prove your thesis of the Western influence falling in the near future, however in my own opinion I do not agree with the statement that the influence will fall in the near future. This does bring up a question, if the influence is going to change in the near future, what will the reactions and actions of the Western countries be to this downfall?
ReplyDeleteKirk excellent blog post, is was an enjoyment for me to read. You have many supporting reaosn to prove your thesis that the multipolar powers of the east will rise. I do although have to disagree on one point you made on the military. You said the east will become stronger and rise above the United States military. I disagree. The United states are ranked number one for spending on their military in the whole world. China is ranked second but is behind the USA by a difference of 568 Billion dollars(http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/apr/17/military-spending-countries-list). This factor is huge, and military powers today can not catch up witht he United states military. Also the percentage of GDP spent by America and china is vastily different on its scale. In 2011 China spent only 2.0 of their GDP ont he military while the USA spent 4.7(highest)(http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS). This nuumber difference on both catagories is the difference between how strong their military is. America is ahead by a landslide.
ReplyDeleteWith this, there are some things I agree with, and some I disagree. Yes, America does echo the fall of past empires very much so, and is most likely on their way out, but are Eastern powers really the ones that'll step up to fill the role?
ReplyDeleteWell, yes and no. Eastern powers could very well rise up to challenge from a military standpoint; North Korea, for example, has the nuclear power and the radicalism to do it, and Japan was a serious threat in the past due to the whole honor system and never giving up. But would they be willing to do so?
China, for one, faces the huge environmental issues right now, all caused by its economic rise. Huge smog clouds that literally blot out the sun are causing the country to suffocate, and because of this there's a lot of turmoil within the country over it. They also have to deal with feeding and paying the massive population they have; they'll probably spend more time keeping their own people from protesting than they will conquering other countries. There's also the fact that America is their largest trading partner; you think they'd want to end that in the field of battle?
Then there's North Korea, which only reigns supreme by keeping its population uneducated. This is why their so against Western, Eastern, any ideals making way into their country, they teach their people that they have the best conditions in the world, when in reality its one of the lowest! They can't send soldiers out to fight in America and other such countries, they'd see just what it's like outside of North Korea and question what they're fighting for. And as for nuclear threat, well, I doubt it'll even matter who's more powerful when we're all dying of a nuclear winter.
Others countries are too weak, or too unstable. The only ones I can see realistically rising to power are India and Japan. But Japan has to deal with Chinese relations at the moment, and India has its own environmental issues and socio-economic issues to deal with.
Yes, it is well within the realm of possibly for the East to challenge America militarily, but they have plenty of internal issues that need to be considered, as the rise to becoming a superpower is about more than just being able to fight.
Kirk, your argument is fairly sound and I agree with your perspective on USA collapsing. I like how you outline the ways in which it will collapse, Middle East, economy and rise of eastern powers. The point that I disagree on is that you declared that the east (India, China and Japan according to your essay) will take power from America. I believe you should have looked further into the state and policies of these three nations. Firstly, Japan economically is very western as it is capitalist and is a ally of USA. Also Japan is democratic in government and is unwilling to have a large army due to what happened in WW2 (CIA, 2013). For these reasons Japan’s is western or at least pro western and I do not see them jumping into the global scene any time soon. As for India it is a mess internally. Currently India has a lumbering uncontrolled population of 1,205,073,612. With only 61% of that literate and 29.8% under the poverty line, India has a lot of internal problems it will have to fix before it enters the global stage (CIA, 2013). In my opinion China is not economically superior enough to take USA’s position. Economically, China struggles from being way to closely tied too, USA and European Union who are both on the decline with massive debts. 21% of Chinese exports are sent to USA and 20.3 are sent to Europe, making them China’s biggest trading partners (Starmass, 2011). If either were to collapse, I can not see China’s economy continuing to grow with out its biggest consumers. Also China has destroyed its environment choosing maximum production over eco friendly methods (Hart-Davis, 472-473). I believe you should have looked more into the nations you chose to take USA’s position. Some other possibilities you could have looked into would be Poland, Russia and Brazil. I also think you should have checked over your facts a little more before publishing your blogg post. Some errors I found were saying that USA was still deployed in Iraq when in fact they have already pulled out in late 2011 (Wikipedia, 2013) . Another fact was that you said most of USA’s debt was to China, when in fact only 9.5% of the debt is owed to China (The Big Picture, 2011). Lastly, you say that Britain granted its empire Independence before WW2, but in reality most of the empire became independent after WW2 (Hart-Davis, 412-413). Overall, you were on the right track with collapse of the USA, but I believe you could have looked further into who might take USA’s power and some of your proving facts.
ReplyDeleteKirk, your summary of the Obama Doctrine was clear. Your blog post raised some questions. Why would the USA diminish its role so much as to allow Eastern powers the opportunity to really challenge its power? Also, what will an economic collapse look like for the United States?
ReplyDeleteI thought your counter-argument was valid. A more recent quotation would have been stronger in your refutation of it.